Who will (and who should) win 2019 Golden Globes
The Golden Globes take place on Sunday, and they mark the official start to Awards Season, as it's the first celebration that gathers a lot of famous people so that they can look great on a red carpet and, for a select few, get the chance to be rushed into an acceptance speech on live television.
The Globes, of course, also has the distinction of being the wacky awards show: it celebrates film and television, separates the movies and shows into drama and comedy categories (sometimes inexplicably!), and, most importantly, feeds champagne to its guests—which always makes for some unpredictable, tipsy moments. (Fingers crossed someone happens to be stuck in the bathroom this year when their category is announced.)
Overseen by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Golden Globes often always deliver some very weird winners that don't always line up with the Oscars or the Emmys. Which is also why they are fun to watch—and even more difficult to predict. Yet here I am, attempting to do just that. Here's what movies and TV shows—and stars—will walk home with bragging rights on Sunday night.
The Golden Globes are, as I said, the "fun" awards show. While Black Panther will most certainly be nominated for Best Picture at this year's Oscars, I doubt it'll win. But the Golden Globes hates being stuffy, so I can see the HFPA handing the top prize over to the best Marvel movie ever made and a bonafide Hollywood game changer.
Along with Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians was another big moment for representation at the cineplex this year—and it played a role in reigniting the romantic comedy genre in 2018. The HFPA would be wise to honor this one; I don't think it has great Oscar chances with a crowded pool of dramatic films, but here's one awards show category in which it can stand out. But Green Book feels like the more likely winner here. People like a movie with a good lesson, even if neither the movie nor the lesson are all that good.
Bohemian Rhapsody was torn apart by critics, ripped to shreds as if they all got their hands on Rami Malek's notoriously bad fake teeth. And yet: Audiences loved it, and it's a surefire blockbuster. And, admittedly, Malek is the best part of the movie, as he commits to his role in a way that even the film itself could not. And honestly, who is his competition? Bradley Cooper's gravelly voiced Jackson Maine? Lucas Hedges in one of the year's three sad white boy dramas (this one's about conversion therapy)? Willem Dafoe in a stoic Vincent Van Gogh biopic? John David Washington's breakthrough performance in BlacKkKlansman might be the one who can steal this one from Malek.
Back when I first saw the trailer for A Star Is Born, I closed my laptop and said, "Fine, just give her all the awards." No one in recent memory has had such a dynamite film debut—in a leading role, no less—quite like Lady Gaga, and the anticipation for her first film certainly played a role in the movie's amazing first hour (the part that's all hers, before it turns into Bradley Cooper's). I concede all of the awards to Lady Gaga, because it's honestly too much trouble to suggest she shouldn't get them.
This year marked the end of Robert Redford's illustrious career in Hollywood, as he announced that David Lowery's '70s-set crime caper The Old Man & the Gun would be his final film. And what a swan song! It's charming, funny, smart, and Redford proves once again what has made him one of the biggest Hollywood stars of his generation. It'd be smart to honor him one last time, but I'm betting that Christian Bale's Very Serious performance as Dick Cheney in Adam McKay's sophomoric political comedy Vice will garner more favor from the HPFA voters.
The Favourite boasts three female leads, but Olivia Colman is the one who has been pushed in the lead actress category (with her co-stars Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone, both Oscar and Golden Globe winners, are running in the supporting actress category). Plenty of critics have claimed category fraud, which could hurt Colman's chances of winning anything at all. Meanwhile, everybody loves Emily Blunt, and everybody loves Mary Poppins (the person, at least, if you're one of the many who were left cold by this sequel), so I wouldn't be surprised if a new take on a classic character picks up the award.
Green Book could be the most complicated awards hopeful of this year's bunch, and that's not exactly a compliment. A movie about racism from a Farrelly brother should have probably raised flags early on, and yet people initially loved this movie—a play of sorts on the Driving Miss Daisy plot—in which a white man learns about a black man's humanity while driving him around the Jim Crow south. Having said that: Mahershala Ali is very good in a role that was unwritten and under-baked, and it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to honor him for making his character a real person. For my money, though, I'd rather see Richard E. Grant pick up the trophy for his stellar performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Regina King's performance in If Beale Street Could Talk makes me go "ugh," as in, "Uggghhhh, how is she so good?!" (Honestly, that was my reaction to the entirety of Barry Jenkins's perfect film.) Meanwhile, Vice made me go, "Ugh, we have to relive the Bush years as a Michael Moore doc/SNL cold open mashup that lasts two hours???" Amy Adams is an Oscar hopeful for her supporting role as Lynne Cheney, and it will be a real bummer if, after many great roles and many nominations, this is what earns her the award. A Golden Globe could make or break her chances, and I am fearful that they are good this year.
Why give it to the Oscar-winning auteur who painstakingly recreated the Mexico City of his youth to tell an extremely personal and deliberate tale of a domestic worker and her connections to the family that employs her when you can hand the award over to Director Bradley Cooper (my favorite phrase of 2018)? Maybe it's time to let the old ways die.
While The Favourite's script is taut and perfectly skewers your typical costume drama with a contemporary vibe (and lots of vulgarities to match the pitch-black humor), Yorgos Lanthimos's directorial stamp is so visible that it's easy to forget he didn't write the film himself. Meanwhile, Adam McKay's overwrought direction in Vice muddles what could very well be a pretty good script. In a politically divided climate, I wouldn't be surprised to see the latter be rewarded for its irreverence; compared to Vice, The Favourite seems like Merchant-Ivory.
First Man may not have soared to award-worthy heights in the way its creative team expected, but its score from Justin Hurwitz—who previously won Oscars and Golden Globes for his work on collaborator Damien Chazelle's La La Land and Whiplash—is a remarkable feat.
Can you think of another song that so perfectly encapsulated its film quite like "Shallow?" From the first moment we heard it in the trailer for A Star Is Born, the meme-worthy AhhhhAAHHHHahhhhhhs pretty much guaranteed it'd be the track to beat for Best Original Song. The hype around it is probably greater than the song itself, which is ultimately two verses and a clunky chorus, but it's been a long time since a movie's original tune was so emotionally evocative and powerful.
Roma is definitely one of the best films of the year and a frontrunner for this year's Oscar for Best Picture, yet the HFPA's rules make it ineligible for the Best Picture category. With that in mind, it's a lock in this category—and if it doesn't take home this award, then I'll take myself out of the running for the 2020 Golden Globes Predictions.
If there's true justice, Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse will earn this one, considering it's not just a gorgeous animated film—it's also an extremely smart superhero movie, one that not only takes the comic book art form to a new, beautiful level but also picks apart the typical trappings that comic book adaptations typically fall into (particularly the live-action ones). And yet: Disney-Pixar is always tough to beat, and Incredibles 2—the long-awaited sequel a decade in the making—is more likely the winner here.
The Golden Globes are particularly known for their off-the-wall choices particularly when it comes to television, which is why all of the nominees in this category are in their first season. While Homecoming has a good shot, considering the HPFA loves Amazon Prime more than anything, I'm willing to bet the critical consensus around Killing Eve last year is unavoidable, even for this somewhat mysterious voting block. But I'd love to see the Ryan Murphy-co-created Pose pick up a deserved award, as months later it still feels revolutionary not just because of its majority-trans cast and crew—but because it depicted queer characters who experience the joys we often see devoid from stories they don't get to tell themselves.
Here's an actually baffling category. The Good Place, now in its third season, might be one of the most interesting network comedies in years. But The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, which won this award last year, has only gotten buzzier since its first season with multiple Emmy wins. (One might suggest that a surprise choice from the HPFA actually proved it had its finger on the pulse.) While Barry could slip through, I doubt that Kidding or The Kominsky Method—two underwatched series, whose presence here seem kind of like favors—would pick up the award. I'm placing my bet on Mrs. Maisel.
Sharp Objects should win this for sure, as I personally think it was the best limited series of the year! The Assassination of Gianni Versace gets my personal second choice, but it seems more likely than the somber Sharp Objects. Knowing the Globes, though, this is nearly unpredictable. Give it to any of them, I say; this is the sort of category that can prove the Globes are less relevant for their critical decisions as they are for providing a space for celebrities to get drunk on camera.
Emmy-winner Matthew Rhys is a fan favorite for his role on The Americans, which concluded last year. This would be his last shot at a Golden Globe (and considering he already won the Emmy, I imagine he... does not care). I'd love to see Billy Porter or Stephan James get it, sure, and Bodyguard's Richard Madden seems on-brand for the category. Let's just all rest assured that Jason Bateman is unlikely to win an award for a dramatic performance any time soon.
Can Sandra Oh co-host the Golden Globes and win one in the same night? Fuck yes, she can. Sandra Oh can do anything!
Donald Glover should win this solely for "Teddy Perkins," in which he donned whiteface to play a very creepy millionaire in a pseudo-horror episode of Atlanta—a feat that most people didn't even realize he had pulled off when the episode itself aired. And yet, the Globes are gonna Globe. I'm betting that Michael Douglas will win for The Kominsky Method, a Netflix sitcom you have never heard of, because this is the kind of chaos the Globes thrives upon.
I predict we will continue to watch Rachel Brosnahan's winning streak throughout 2019, starting with another Golden Globe for her role as the foul-mouthed, fast-talking housewife-turned-comedian. ("Fork off," Kristen Bell's Eleanor Shellstrop would say.)
Here I am, all alone in my dungeon, screaming "Justice for Patrick Melrose!" to an audience of nobody. Can I hold onto hope that Benedict Cumberbatch could win it for the five-part Showtime series? Eh, I think Darren Criss should probably clear off space for a Golden Globe to go along with his Emmy.
This is less of a prediction of who will win and more of a demand, because if Amy Adams loses this one—a far more deserving performance than anything she was able to do in Vice—then I might just throw myself at my television! Let's hope this category comes toward the end of the evening, for my TV's sake! (It was expensive!!!)
We're nearing the end of this list and now focusing on the least interesting categories, in my opinion. Henry Winkler already won an Emmy for Barry in the fall, so even he might be kinda like, "Hmm, do I have to show up for this one?" Meanwhile, maybe Alan Arkin has a Golden Globes psychic as good as me (or, let's be honest, as willing throw things at the wall to see what sticks). "Golden Globe-winning comedy The Kominsky Method" has a nice and absurd ring to it, don't you think?
Penelope Cruz nailed the look and the lisp when it came to playing Donatella Versace, even though she still pales in comparison to anything Maya Rudolph ever did on SNL. Even though The Assassination of Gianni Versace was mostly a bait-and-switch, highlighting the fashion family in its promos but ultimately focusing on serial killer Andrew Cunanan (and thus reducing Cruz's role to cameo-level at best), I wouldn't put it past the HPFA to give Cruz this one simply for looking so great in leopard print.